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ISSN : 2288-4637(Print)
ISSN : 2288-4645(Online)
The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business Vol.2 No.3 pp.23-32
DOI : https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2015.vol2.no3.23.

Demographic Trends and the Methods of their Regulation in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Nailya K. Nurlanova*,Marziya K. Meldakhanova**
*Institute of Economics of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. [29 Kurmangazy Street, Almaty 050010, Republic of Kazakhstan.
**Institute of Economics of the Ministry Education and Science of Republic of Kazakhstan. [29 Kurmangazy Street, Almaty 050010, Republic of Kazakhstan.
May 9, 2015 July 30, 2015 August 10, 2015.

Abstract

The aim of this work is to study the specifics of demographic processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan and to justify proposals concerning improvement of tendencies and methods of realizations of demographic policy in the country. The following methods have been used in this study: the principles of system approach; methods of statistical and comparative economic analysis, sociological analysis; method of expert evaluations; generalization and system analysis. Statistical method is based on the accountability of statistics office of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) and on the results of sociological studies. The official statistic information, materials of the population census of the RK, materials of the Ministry of Health and Social Development of RK, data from author’s studies, carried out in the Institute of Economy of science committee of Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan were used in this study. The conclusion about positive tendencies in demographic processes and about necessity of improvement of demographic policy was made. A number of proposals and recommendations concerning creation of favorable social and economic conditions for improvement of demographic situation, enhancement of institutional basis of demographic policy, forms and methods of its realization considering priorities of future development of Kazakhstan were justified.

JEL Classifications:A14, E03, E24.

초록


 1. Introduction

The aim of this work is to study the specifics of demographicnprocesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan and to justify proposalsnconcerning improvement of tendencies and methods ofnrealizations of demographic policy in the country. To attain thenaim the existent demographic theories have been examined;nglobal demographic tendencies have been studied; the factorsnthat influence demographic development of Kazakhstan havenbeen determined; the analysis have been carried out and demographicnprocesses in the republic under present-day conditionsnhave been particularized; proposals concerning the improvementnof demographic situation have been worked out.

The need for this study is caused by the characteristic demographicnimbalance in the modern period in many countriesnworldwide, which is one of the global challenges of the earlyn21st century. Besides, growing demographic problems form newnmigratory waves and reinforce social tension all over the world.nAs it is known, the source of innovative development of nationalneconomics is high-quality labor potential, the scale of whichnhighly depends on the improvement of demographic situation innthe country. At the same time, it should be noted that the essencenof demographic problems in certain regions and countriesnof the world differs greatly. Demographic imbalance, which isncharacterized by low birth rate in many Western countries, agingnand depopulation inevitably, provokes problems at the labornmarket and the lack of labor resources. Maintenance of the currentndemographic tendencies can result in that the number ofnpeople older than 60 will exceed over people under 15 years ofnage in these countries. On the other hand, uncontrolled demographicnprocesses in developing countries can lead to overpopulationnand difficulties connected with it (low living standard,nlack of workplaces, unemployment, problems with food supply,ninsufficient health service etc.). Therefore, in the present conditionsnresearchers are paying great attention to study of thendemographic processes in many countries. That is such scholars,nas Bruk S., Kapitsa S.P., Klupt M.A., Kohler H.P., Billari F.,nOrtega J. and others.

Overcoming of demographic imbalances can give new possibilitiesnfor economic rise of the country and its social and economicnmodernization. Due to this, demographic situation in thencountry should be regarded as one of the most important fac-tors determining quantitative and qualitative parameters of reproductionnof population and labor potential. Demographic processesnis Kazakhstan have its specific character. Kazakhstan belongsnto the group of countries where the natural population increasenis gradually approaching zero index. In order to find rightnways of overcoming of demographic problems, it is necessary tonunderstand their reasons, reveal new opportunities, systematizenall factors that influence demographic situation in the country inngeneral and particularly birth rate, natural population increase,nlife span and aging of the population. Therefore, there is necessitynto study this problem and work out the ways of its solution.

Novelty and originality of the research is in the study of peculiaritiesnof demographic changes and development of scientificallyngrounded practical recommendations for improvement ofndemographic policy considering priorities of future developmentnof the Republic of Kazakhstan. Hypothesis of the research is innevaluation of social demographic dynamics and modern situationnin the country on the basis of the analysis and primary treatmentnof information for argumentation of proposals according tonareas, forms and methods of demographic policy considering differentnfactors.

Methodology. The following methods have been used in thisnstudy: methods of statistical and comparative economic analysis,nsociological analysis of the authors; method of expert evaluations;ngeneralization and system analysis. Statistical method isnbased on the accountability of statistics office of the Ministry ofnNational Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) and resultsnof sociological studies. Works concerning the topic of thenpaper by foreign and home authors, published in periodicals, innthe Internet; official statistic information, materials of the populationncensus of the RK, materials of the Ministry of Healthnand Social Development of RK, data from author’s studies, carriednout in the Institute of Economy of science committee ofnMinistry of Education and Science of the Republic ofnKazakhstan were used in this study.

Results. On the basis of analysis, comparison and generalization general methodological approaches to the study of the processes of reproduction of population were defined; specifics of demographic processes in republic were revealed; the main factors that influence demographic processes in different regions were estimated; proposals for improvement of demographic policy  in Kazakhstan were worked out.

This article has methodological meaning, because it presentsna choice of metrics, which is the most easy-to-use in the assessmentnof demographic processes. Applied relevance of thenresearch is that results can be applied in realization of newndemographic policy of Kazakhstan, implementation of strategicallynimportant state objectives, set in "Kazakhstan - 2050"nStrategy and other policy documents of the country. The articlenconsists of the following parts: Introduction, Theoretical aspects,nData and methods, Analysis, Conclusions and Reference.

2. Theoretical Aspects of Demographic Development of the Country

2.1. Generalities of Demographic Theory

National employment policy of every country is inseparablynconnected with specifics of social and demographic developmentnof the country. The condition of labor market, demand and supplynof the labor force depend on demographic tendencies andnsocial development of the country. If replenishment of labornforce at the expense of natural population increase is impossiblenin the country, there appears necessity in involvement of labornforce from the outside. As the world experience shows, demographicnpicture is no static, it undergoes different dynamicnchanges. That is why it is important for the country to accomplishngoal-directed activity in the sphere of regulation of reproductionnof population by means of demographic policy.nDemographic policy can be directed at preserving or changingnthe tendency in population number and structure.

In modern conditions of innovative economics, when newnhigh-technology branches and factories, and new workplaces arencreated; the latest achievements of scientific and technical advancenare applied, forms and meanings of labor activity arengreatly improved. New technologies and methods of productionnand management are created, intellectualization of labor is intensifies,nand working, social and demographic activity of thenpeople is highly grows. It results in the increase of the requirementsnto the demographic factors of development of human resources,nits qualitative and quantitative characteristics. On thenother hand, innovative development is accompanied by qualitativenchanges in vital activity of humans, the standard of lifenincreases, environmental conditions improve, as a result positivendynamics of demographic activity is observed.

The key basic indicator of demographic situation in the countrynand security of employment is population size and pace ofnits growth. Population size is, to some extent, connected withnvitality of the country, safety of the territorial integrity, geopoliticalnposition in the world. For example, in neighboringnRussia, where negative tendencies of demographic processesnare observed, the question of demographic policy is given greatnconsideration, according to the message of the president ofnRussian Federation to the Federal Assembly: "For Russia to bensovereign and strong there must be more of us…" Otherwise, itnwill "turn into poor country,…not able to keep its independencenand its territory" (Putin, 2012).

This statement is topical for Kazakhstan, where populationnsize and density of settlement is much lower than in Russia.nThe level of population density influences economic developmentnand progress of certain regions of the country. Therefore, thenaim of major importance for Kazakhstan is support of extendednreproduction of population. Demographic processes play crucialnrole in social development, have great influence on the changenof pace and proportion of economic and social development.nRegarding economy population is at the same time producernand consumer of material goods. This two-way dependence causes difficulties of ties between population and economy.nPopulation cannot exist outside economy, and economy –withoutnpopulation. These are two parts of one socially determined andninterdependent process. On the other hand, demographic situationnin the country is also influenced by a number of factors.nAmong them: radical changes of economic environment, livingnconditions, economic welfare of population, which leads to deliberatenbirth rate regulation; the level of health care; specifics ofnage structure of population; legal base concerning marriage; culturalntraditions and mentality of population, which establishnstandards of demographic behavior; uncontrolled migration volumesnetc. The above mentioned factors influence volume andnpace of reproduction of population as the process of continuousnrenewal of generations of people. Reproduction of population innthe country is performed according to sex and age, socialngroups, i.e. social and economic belonging of people, nationality,nmarital status, territory settlement and place of living (city or village),neducation, professional indication and other parametersn(PCD, 1994).

This report examines the various forms of population movement,nconnected with changes of qualitative and quantitativenfeatures, transition of groups of people from one condition intonanother: natural and social (Bruk, 1996). Special attention isnpaid to the natural population movement, which is connectednwith birth rate and life span. Birth and death rates in the countrynare constantly changing and has direct relation to the earliernestablished demographic situations, which have natural biologicalnbasis but are dependent on social and economic conditions. Atnthe same time, birth rate is influenced by sex ratio, age structure,nproportion of women of childbearing age in general populationnlevel, marriage and divorce rate, mean age of the peoplenentering into marriage, duration of being out of wedlock etc.nMigration of population, level of material security, housing conditions,nhealth status of population, level of development ofnhealthcare system and provision with medical staff, medical institutionsnand other healthcare institutions and many other socialneconomic factors are also of crucial importance.

Speaking generally about demographic development, its tendenciesnin the country substantially change the model of reproductionnof population. The model which presupposes highnbirth rate, high death rate and reproduction of population on thisnbasis is replaced by another model: low birth rate, extension ofnlife span, and low death rate. The further demographic developmentnof the country depends on interconnection of these . Demographic Discussions

2.2. Demographic Discussions

Let us examine the existent demographic concepts, which arenspread in the second half of 20th century. Particularly, basicnprovisions of demographic theory by S.P. Kapitsa, who examinednthe evolution of global demographic processes from mathematicnperspective (Zakamskaya, 2011). Sergei Kapitsa studiednquantitative changes of the planet population as dynamic system,nwhere growth of the number of population was under the influence of economic, social and cultural activity of humanity.nThe main variable quantity here –is general population size ofnthe world, and the derivatives - are indicators which reflect itsnracial, ethnical, and sex-age structure, geographical distributionnof population, population density, urban saturation.

In the context of this theory, humanity in modern world experiencesndemographic transition from one form to another. Thisnunique process is characterized by ceasing of explosive growthnof population size, which was observed in 20th century, and itsndestabilization in the last years. Demographic transition from explosivengrowth to the slowdown is caused by decrease of birthnrate, development of the society of knowledge, life-span growth.

However, this research remains mathematical measurement ofnactual state, but not the theory, able to predict demographicntrends. Therefore, this theory is underproductive, and is not applicablento certain countries, because it cannot define prospectsnof demographic development in swept country (Kapitsa, 2000,n2008). Thereby, theories of demographic transitions explain onlynone side of demographic situation – decrease of death ratenand/or birth rate in one or another country. At the same time itndoes not sufficiently examines the reasons of birth rate decrease,nlowering or growth of life span and other demographicnphenomena. Thus, if in the latest decades of the past centurynmany demographic processes were explained by the theories ofndemographic transition, connected with the concept of modernizationnof economy and society (Kapitsa, 2008), but in the 21stncentury methodology of demographic studies has been changed.nDemographic processes in modern world are examined from thenperspective of regional studies and institutional analysis (Klupt,n2005).

Comparing two theoretical views on global demographic development,n- theory of demographic transition and institutionalnanalysis, - the number of distinctive features can be singled outn(Table 1).

<Table 1> Distinctive Features of Demographic Theories

Accordingly, for alternative theories, for which we relate thentheory of institutional analysis and regional studies to, regulationsnmore flexible for modern world, which adequately explainndemographic processes the same globally and on the scope ofnone country or certain territory are typical. These theories arenmore advanced, as they are more adapted to the conditions ofnthe country, for periods of time, considering real social andneconomy, moral, natural, technological, ethnical, cultural, ethicalnand other factors of local character. Institutional theories enablento study the influence and interaction of economic and demographicnchanges. Foreign studies on birth rate problem, performednwithin the framework of institutional theory should alsonbe mentioned (Klupt, 2002).

Summarizing the main points of demographic theories, wencan conclude, that there are no universal concepts; theoreticalnprovisions can be changed depending on time and should benadapted to national specifics and consider specific factors forncertain country and certain time period.

2.3. Demographic Processes in Modern Post-industrial World

In developed countries of Western world there are three mainntypes of reproduction of population, connected with the birthnrate. The first type is close to extended reproduction of populationnwith high birth rate, and is typical for the USA. The secondntype, the so-called modern or rational type, is close to simplenreproduction and is observed in the countries of WesternnEurope. It is characterized by relatively low birthrate, high averagenlifetime, high death rate because of the liberal share of elderlynpeople and, as a result, low natural population growth. Atnthe same time in Southern European countries birth rate hasngreatly decreased last years as a result of specifics of demographicnpolicy. These tendencies have brightly shown in Italynand Spain. The third, the so-called traditional or patriarchal type,nis peculiar for the most of developing countries. Its distinctivenfeatures are high birth rate and families having many children,nmedial life-span, and high death rate because of insufficientnhealthcare level and guarding of motherhood and childhood.

However, in the early 21st century modern demographic tendenciesnin these countries have started to change: they are typicalnof death rate decrease while preserving high birth rate,nwhich naturally leads to the high population growth, which predeterminesnaverage pace of the growth of population of thenworld. Scientific researchers showed that divergences in typesnand tendencies of demographic processes are highly dependentnon the level of control over childbirth and institutional conditionsn(formal and informal) of the carried out demographic policy.

Thus, for example, in the USA, as opposed to the westnEuropean countries, conservative models of demographic behaviornare widespread. These models are characterized by savingntraditional family, negative attitude towards extramarital affairsnand unisexual marriages. As a result total birth rate, which presentnthe average number of children, born by a single womannthrough the whole life, for white women of the USA was highern(1.9) than the same indicator for the European women. Ofncourse, the growth of birth rate in the USA was achieved not onlyndue to preservation of traditional family values. Demographicngrowth of the USA was also influenced by such positive factorsnas salary growth of women and corresponding increase of femalenself-sufficiency and financial independence; heavy growth ofnchild-care services; receiving of state subsidy from federal fundsnfor these services payment; extension of the possibilities fornwomen to work part-time. In many ways birth rate growth wasnachieved due to the amplification of Latin Americans, who havenhigher total birth rate – 3.1, as compared to white Americansn(WHMC, 2002).

At the end of the 20th century contradictory tendencies werenalso observed in European countries. For example, total birthnrate was relatively stable nearly 1.6-1.7 in Western Europeanncountries, but at the same time increased the number of thenchildren who were born out of wedlock. Demographic tendenciesnin South European countries were different. For example, totalnbirth rate has suddenly decreased –to 1,2 in Spain and Italy,nwhich is not peculiar for the mentality of these people (Dalla &nZuanna, 2001; FFS, 2000; Kohler et al., 2002; Rosina, 2001).nNevertheless, in these countries close-knit family traditions remainnstrong and childbirth out of wedlock did not become anstandard.

As for the post-Soviet countries and Eastern Europe, the crisisnin the economy and social sphere were observed in the lastndecade of the 20th century, which was caused by changes innthe social system, market-oriented reforms in the economy. Thisnresulted in decrease of life-span and standard of life, birth ratenreduction, and growth of inner and outer migration which arennegative demographic processes that in many cases can lead tondepopulation. Nevertheless, last years, due to the economic expansionnand rise in standard of leaving of people in post-Sovietncountries and Eastern Europe demographic situation has startednto improve greatly and the life-span has grown (HDR, 1999).nBut in Russia and Ukraine positive shifts in demography are notnfirm till present time. As it is known, the most populated countriesnof the world are India and China. However demographicnpolicy of these countries differs greatly, that is why demographicntrends of these countries have been formed differently. In Chinantotal birth rate decreased from 4,8 in 1979 to 1,7 in modernnperiod. In India this indicator remains high enough nowadays,nhaving decreased from 5,4 to 3,1 during the same time periodn(WPP, 2012).

Summarizing world tendencies of demographic development following conclusions can be made.

Firstly, weakening of the necessity in several children andnmotivation for traditional family takes place in many developednWestern countries (joint living and economy management). The attitude to the marriage registration, having several children alsonchanges; aspirations for higher living standard and achievementnof financial and career goals increase. In modern society ideologynof post-modernism is prevails, where family and children donnot only play important role, but also hamper it. The value ofnmarriage registration lowers. These changes are especially significantnamong young people. The shift from the rulingn"normal"model of two-child family to the ideal one-child familyn(without marriage registration) model has begun.

Secondly, there is no general ruling tendency for all countriesnof the world. It is necessary to admit that with the increase ofngeneral standard of well-being of the population, economic andnsocial stability in the country, medicine progress, development ofncivilized social and psychological relationship, growth of spiritualnand cultural level one and the same country can move whethernto the decrease of birth rate on the background of higher standardnof life, or to its increase.

Therefore, throughout different periods of social and demographicndevelopment formation of the priority system and systemnof mechanisms that ensure their achievement presupposes usenof different means for different economic and demographicnconditions.

3. Data and Methods

Methodological basis of this study were systematic approachesnto the estimation of demographic condition of the republic,nstudies of the leading foreign and Kazakh economistsnthat reveal new tendencies of demographic development of populationnof the country. The following methods were used in thisnstudy: statistic and comparative economic analysis, method ofnexpert evaluations. Statistical method was based on the accountabilitynof statistics office of the Republic of Kazakhstann(RK) and results of sociological studies. For generalization ofnstatistic data and visual image of results of the research tabularnprocedure was applied.

To analyze demographic situation indicators which most adequatelyncharacterize demographic processes in one countrynwere chosen: dynamics of population size, birth rate, life-span,nsex-age structure of population. The following terminology wasnused:

Reproduction of population is the process of alternation ofngenerations as a result of births and deaths. It consists of twondemographic processes: birth rate and death rate. It is estimatednby indicators of the mode of population reproduction.

Birth rate is ratio of the total number of children born alive,nto the total population size throughout concerned period in pernmile on 1000 people, ‰.

Cumulative birth rate (CBR) is an average number of births for one woman in hypothetical generation through whole of her life.

The number of women in childbearing age (from 20 to 40 years) was also considered as one of the important indicators ofndemographic potential of the population.

Methodology of birth rate analysis presupposes usage ofn"breeding potential"notion. Breeding potential is potential possibilitiesnof birth in the existing demographic structure of population.

Demographic aging is increase of the number of elderly andnold people in total population size. It is estimated by the coefficients:nratio of the number of people in the age 60 yearsnand older (or 65 and older) to the total population size, presentednin percent.

Life expectancy at birth is the most important overall index, which characterizes possibility of long and healthy life of population of the country. It describes average time of the forthcoming life of a person starting from zero age.

4. Analysis of the Demographic Processes in Kazakhstan

Modern demography situation in republic is successful enough. Starting from 2000-s it is characterized by stable positive dynamics of growth of population size mainly due to stable natural increase.

4.1. Birth Rate Analysis and Estimation of Its Influence on Population Reproduction in Kazakhstan.

According to natural and economic potential Kazakhstan isncharacterized as agrarian-industrial country. Agrarian sphere ofnthe country is concentrated mainly in rural area and for itsnsteady development is needed domiciled population capable ofnfarming. The part of population size of rural area was nearlyn60% in 1960 in Kazakhstan, total birth rate was 41.7. Birth ratenof city population was 31.6. In 2013 the part of rural populationndecreased to 45.1 %, birth rate –to 32.0. Birth rate of urbannpopulation also decreased –to 22.4. This data shows that birthnrate decreased during last half of a century in Kazakhstan,nmainly in rural area which is determined by the following factors:nlow living standards in the rural area where the most partnof the population is not provided with steady job; bad supplynwith institutions for children; poor supply with healthcare and educationalninstitutions; underdevelopment of the whole social infrastructurenetc.

Analysis of the structure of urban and rural population accordingnto the age groups has shown that in rural area part ofnchildren aged 0-14 years is bigger than in the city. In the structurenof urban population prevails group of people in the age capablenof working – 15-64 years, which is the result of increasenof migration flow from the village in search of steady workingnplace and/or professional growth (Table 2).

Rural population continues to play certain role in the preservationnof demographic growth of population. In general, birthnrate in rural area remains mostly high. It can be explained bynthe moral traditions, according to which big number of childrennin the family is approved. Changes that happened and still happennin the economy and society of Kazakhstan during the lastntwo decades have influenced the change of birth rate. Great influencenon these changes was made by the worldwide tendenciesnof demographic processes, change of the family model.nHowever, national specifics of the current processes are stillnpreserved in Kazakhstan. For Kazakhstan population reproductivenbehavior, based on such factors as need in childrennand estimation of certain social and economic situation of thenfamily is typical. It can be supposed that economic motives playnan important role for Kazakhstan people, where more than halfnof which are characterized by low living standard (Table 3).

<Table 2> Structure of Urban and Rural Population of Kazakhstan according to Age Groups from 1999 to 2013, %

Note: the table composed and calculated according by the data (DYK, 2013).

<Table 3> Reasons of Birth Control in Kazakhstan

Analysis showed that economic motives dominate when decidingnto have children and are usually contradictory to moralnand psychological and social motives. That is why it is necessarynto make conclusion that in conditions of unsteady economicngrowth in Kazakhstan reproductive potential cannot be fullynrealized. In order to avoid possible birth rate reduction in thennearest future it is necessary to use stimulus for positive effectnon the birth rate in demographic policy. Most of the scientistsnand practical men (economists, demographers, sociologists) whonstudy the problems of population and demographic policy considernarrangements of financial birth rate stimulation (differentnkinds of aids for families and children, its enlarging ) cannotnsolve the problem of low birth rate. The experience of a numbernof countries indicates that financial aid for families with childrennleads only to insignificant and short-term effect. However, it isnundoubtedly that quality and living standard have great influencenon the tendencies of changing birth rate level.

One of the important reasons of birth rate decrease in Kazakhstan is housing problem. Low level of income does not enable most part of the population to buy or build housing, which has negative influence on the birth rate. Young families, as a rule, cannot get access to the housing market without financial aid. That is why one of the most important directions of housing policy in Kazakhstan is support of young families with improvement of living conditions. Solution of housing problem for most of young families, to my mind, is more effective and high-speed action for birth rate stimulation, rather than financial aid to the families with children.

Analysis of the world experience of demographic policy, particularlynin France, has shown that today this country preservesnone of the leading positions in Europe in birth rate level. Thenmain principle of French family policy is the guarantee of livingnstandard, sufficient for all families, regardless of the size andnsocial class. For today, France presents its family support policynas a policy of war against poverty. Adopted in France familyncode contains laws concerning protection of motherhood, accordingnto which were brought in social premium for all parents havingnmany children, maternity leaves etc. (PPFM, 2006).nNowadays in France exists state "Big family"program meant fornfamilies with many children. The program proposes financingnand tax remission for these families. Every following child decreasesntaxable base; families with four children practically donnot pay taxes at all. The benefit spreads over all the people regardlessnof family income.

State support of families with children is one of importantnconstituents of family policy of any European country. Analysisnof successful experience of European countries is very importantnfor Kazakhstan, especially now –on its way of the search fornthe best system of family support. From experience of foreignncountries in Kazakhstan the "Fund of generations"program isnaccepted. Within the framework of this program, for example, inn2012 the Center of extra corporal fertilization (CEF) was openednin Petropavlovsk, which has greatly extended opportunities ofnbirth rate growth on the region –to 5-6 % (Kuanganov, 2012).nAccording to the economists, costs of the state on economicnstimuli of the "Fund of Generations" program do not exceed 600nmillion USD on every additional million of people of populationngrowth (Kuanganov, 2012). Transitional type of reproduction ofnpopulation was typical for Kazakhstan, and it has shown lowerndeath rates as compared to birth rate, unstable birth rate indicators,nincreasing migration mobility, transition from familiesnwith many children to families with one child.

As a result of taken by the state steps, starting from 2001npopulation of the republic entered the regime of extended reproduction,nwhich is characterized by the increase of every generationnentering life as compared to the number of passingngenerations. There progressive type of sex-age structure hasnbeen established and its absolute number grows. Yearly indicatorsnof population growth rate are unstable, from 1.1 to 2.6n%. They are presented in the following Table 4.

<Table 4> Population Growth Rate in Republic of Kazakhstan Years 2005-2013, %

Note: the table composed and calculated according by the data(DYK, 2013).

In general, this tendency can be called positive, as there is observed steady natural population growth.

4.2. Life Span and Aging of the Population

According to the experts’evaluation, population is aging, whennthe number of elderly people older than 65 years exceeds 7.5%nof the total number of population. According to statistics, innKazakhstan in early 1999 the number of people in the age ofn65 years and older was 6.7% of total population number; inn2008 –7.8%. At the same time, due to the increase of thenstandard of well-being the number of children in the age incapablenof working increased from 25.8% in 2008 to 26.8% inn2013. Accordingly, the number of people older than 65 yearsnbegan to decrease in 2013 –6.6% (Table 5).

<Table 5> Distribution of Population of Kazakhstan according to Age Groups at the Beginning of the Years 2008-2013, in %

Note: the table composed and calculated according by the data (YBS, 2014, p. 19)

According to the estimation of demographers, there is a tendencynof the aging of population of the country in Kazakhstan.nFrom the Table 3 it can be seen that there is a big part ofnable-bodied population, which preserves due to high birth rate inn1950-1970. However the part of the able-body population willnpass into the group of people older than 65 years in twentynyears. These are the leading features of the aging process innthe future. Demographers predict that the part of the people oldernthan 65 years can reach 11.5% in 2013 in Kazakhstan.

Reasons of aging of Kazakhstan population were: decrease ofnbirth rate in 1990-sas a result of economic crisis; high deathnrate, especially among able-bodied men; insignificant but steadyngrowing life span in the last decade of the 21st century. Thisnfactor experts more pressure on items of expense of nationalnbudget and economic load on able-bodied population. Decreasenof the amount of able-bodied population from the perspective ofnstate revenue means decrease of tax receipt into the budget. Atnthe same time, the number of children and retired people whonget social aid from the state will increase. These tendencies willndevelop concurrently for a long time. In this situation the statenwill be forced to increase taxes and to rise retirement age fornmen and women. Thus, according to the forecasting, the part ofnable-bodied citizens of RK in the age group from 25 to 64 years can decrease from 51% in 2013 to 42% in 2030n(Suvorov, 2013).

Nowadays every able-bodied person in Kazakhstan ensuresnnecessary standard of living of one incapable of working (childnor retired). By 2030 this ratio can increase and will be 1 to 1.5.nThis will mean that the load on the able-bodied population willnbe 50% more than today. At the same time it is necessary tonnote that the aging process is not only negative phenomenon,nas it greatly explains increase of life span. Life span of populationngrows under the influence of improvement of social andneconomic conditions, increasing of quality of life, and positivendynamics of health of the people. One of the main features ofnwelfare of the people is life expectancy at birth. Evidently, thenhigher life span of the person is the bigger contribution one cannmake into the development of the society (Table 6).

<Table 6> Life Expectancy at Birth in Kazakhstan, 2006-2013

Note: the table composed and calculated according by the data to the source (YBS, 2014, p. 17)

The average healthy life expectancy is an integral indexnwhich is influenced by the level and the structure of death ratenand level and structure of sick rate. On the current stage elderlynpopulation plays an important role in social and economicnlife of population of Kazakhstan. The growth of life expectancynat birth and increase of the part of elderly people requirenchanging pension policy of the country, particularly in April 2013nthe state government approved a bill on raise of retirement agenfor women to 63 years. These proposals were made becausenlife expectancy at birth for women in future will exceed life expectancynat birth for men (Table 7).

<Table 7> Predictable Life Expectancy at Birth for Men and Women in Kazakhstan, Years

Note: the table composed and calculated according by the data to the source (WPP, 2012).

From the data in Table 5 it is seen that life expectancy overnthe last more than 60 years has been increased both for mennand women for more than 10 years. Nevertheless, gender differencenin this indicator shows more than 10 years in women’snfavor. According to the predictable calculations of the UNO, dynamicsnof the survival years for people older than 65 years innKazakhstan has a tendency to increase, though, it considerably yields to European and American indexes (Table 8) (WPP,n2012).

<Table 8> Predictable Dynamics of Survival Rates for People Older than 65 Years, Years

Note: the table composed and calculated according by the data to the source (WPP, 2012).

Analysis enables to single out the following specifics of demographic development

- Intensity and nature of demographic phenomena are not changeable directly after the changing of economic conditions. It takes some time, during which the standards of demographic behavior are formed;

- The growth of financial welfare of population and other results of economic reforms lead to deliberate birth rate regulation;

- Demographic development of the country is influenced by specifics of age structure of population or changing of the interval between births. These are the indexes of birth rate intensity, average life span, irrational, undesirable, uncontrolled migration volumes, statistic of marriages and divorces.

The research enables to single out the following demographic problems of Kazakhstan considering its industrial and innovative development:

- The high infant mortality is preserved on the background of increasing birth rate;

- High death rate among able-bodied men which three times prevails over the death rate of women of the same age category is observed;

- Is achieved slightly increasing life expectancy at birth, much shorter in men than in women;

- High demographic load is formed, that is the number of people in the below and above able-bodied age for one thousand of able-bodied people;

- The low housing and employment of rural migrants is preserved in the cities.

To improve demographic situation in Kazakhstan and to solve the existing problems it is necessary to enhance demographic policy. Its main objectives have to be stimulation of reproductive activity of population; stimulation of optimum birth rate; death rate decrease; increase of life span; aid for women with children; healthcare reinforcement and protection; regulation of inner and outer migration.

The courses of demographic policy should be reconciled with other spheres of social policy: income and emoluments sphere, education, house building, healthcare, employment, culture, youth, family and social protection of people.

5. Conclusions

New course of economic policy of Kazakhstan is oriented to industrial and innovative development in conditions of global challenges and demographic trends demand improvement of demographic policy capable of supplying the development of national economy with skilled workforce. For Kazakhstan, where the density of population is low the objective of state importance is achievement of expanded reproduction of population. To avoid demographic crisis it is necessary nowadays not only to preserve the established level of reproduction of population but also to take measures to improve it. Active demographicpolicy, oriented to families with many children, is needed for the basis of demographic growth.

Guidelines for improvement of demographic policy of Kazakhstan are given considering the priorities of national policy development. The following is proposed by the authors as directions and necessary actions of demographic policy:

1) For the improvement of institutional basis of demographic policy it is necessary to:

- work out the concept of demographic policy of Kazakhstan till 2025;

- work out and adopt the state program of demographic development;

- work out and adopt the law of the land on "Guarantee of family and children support". According to this law there must be established the guarantee system on: financial aids; paid leaves; tax remissions; housing benefits (aid, loans); benefits for retired people; free and qualitative healthcare services for mothers and children; guarantee of availability of nursery pre-school institutions; benefits for educational and healthcare services for families with children, etc. Such like system will make life more predictable and will let the most part of the young families to take more free and responsible decisions concerning childbirth. The law should also provide for step-by step cost increase on family and maternity aid (1.5% till 2020 year and 2.5% till 2025 year).

2) It is necessary to implement healthy way of life (according to the experience of foreign countries the scale of the influence is 15-25 years of the growth of life expectancy), improvement of quality of healthcare service, increasing of its availability, especially in rural area, reinforcement healthcare protection. It will enable to ensure the following death rate decrease; life span increase, especially men, whose working and mental potential is the basis of innovative activity of population.

3) The measures on active life span increase and containment of physical aging are proposed. Particularly: development of biomedical knowledge and innovative technologies, oriented towards containment and reversion of the aging; creation of research institutes, which will study the mechanisms of aging and development of anti-aging technologies; creation of specialized commercial companies for forestalling development of anti-aging technologies; development of the "Road map of the aging studies" creation of the centers working on the problems of aging prevention.

4) Measures on stimulation of the optimum berth rate and help for women with children are needed. These measures include: stimulating measures on family consolidation; increase of availability and quality of healthcare for women and children; development of maternal certificate problem; increase of financing of infertility treatment, including usage of extra corporal fertilization echnologies; modernization of nursery clinics and hospitals, kindergartens and nurseries.

5) Measures directed at the change of value orientations of the youth and increase of their reproductive activity, strengthening of family relationships.

Figure

Table

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